Ongoing Research
How Gender Role Attitudes Shape Maternal Labor Supply | Tim Mensinger
Abstract | Working Paper | Interview
We examine the influence of gender role attitudes, specifically views about the appropriate role of mothers, on post-childbirth employment decisions. German panel data reveals that mothers with traditional attitudes are 15% less likely to work during early motherhood than their egalitarian counterparts. Differences also emerge at the intensive margin and are persistent for at least seven years. Fathers' attitudes also predict maternal labor supply, highlighting joint decision-making within couples. Examining the interaction of attitudes with policies, we find that the introduction of a cash-for-care payment for parents who abstain from using public childcare substantially reduced the labor supply of traditional mothers, whereas egalitarian mothers' labor supply remained unaffected. To examine counterfactual policy changes, we estimate a dynamic model of female labor supply that incorporates human capital accumulation and, as a novel feature, heterogeneity by gender attitudes. Labor supply elasticities are substantially larger for traditional mothers, while a policy facilitating full-time childcare access has a more pronounced effect on egalitarian mothers. Our findings stress that gender role attitudes moderate the impact of policies, which implies that measured average policy effects depend on the distribution of attitudes and, hence, cannot easily be transferred over time or to other countries. Abstract | Working Paper | Coverage: Wirtschaftswoche 23, 2023 | Coverage: FAZ Aug 2024
This study examines how the Covid-19 pandemic-induced shift towards remote work has influenced parents' allocation of non-market and market work. Utilizing a probability-based panel survey and comprehensive administrative records from the Netherlands covering the years 2014 to 2021, we demonstrate that the potential for remote work has been significantly realized only after the onset of the pandemic. Simultaneously, following a brief period of school and daycare closures, the total time parents spent on childcare returned to pre-pandemic levels. Notably, while the potential for remote work was associated with reduced childcare provision before the pandemic, this relationship reversed post-pandemic onset. We interpret this shift as an indication of increased flexibility for parents, with fathers experiencing greater gains than mothers. Consequently, the division of childcare duties has become more equitable, and mothers have increased their working hours. Our findings suggest that broader acceptance of remote work by employers could foster greater gender convergence in the intra-household division of labor. Proud to Not Own Stocks: How Identity Shapes Financial Decisions | Luca Henkel
Abstract | Working Paper
This paper introduces a key factor influencing households' decision to invest in the stock market: how people view stockholders. Using surveys we conducted with nearly 8,500 individuals from eleven countries, we document that a large majority of respondents view stockholders negatively -- they are perceived as greedy, gambler-like, and selfish individuals. We then provide experimental evidence that such perceptions of identity-relevant characteristics causally influence decision-making: if people view stockholders more negatively, they are less likely to choose stock-related investments. Furthermore, by linking survey and administrative data, we show that negative perceptions strongly predict households' stock market participation, more so than leading alternative determinants. Our findings provide a novel explanation for the puzzlingly low stock market participation rates around the world, new perspectives on the malleability of financial decision-making, and evidence for the importance of identity in economic decision-making. Abstract | Working Paper | Online Appendix | Replication Package
This paper analyzes the stability and distribution of ambiguity attitudes using a broad population sample. Using high-powered incentives, we collected six waves of data on ambiguity attitudes about financial markets---our main application---and climate change. Estimating a structural stochastic choice model, we obtain three individual-level parameters: Ambiguity aversion, likelihood insensitivity, and the magnitude of decision errors. These parameters are very heterogeneous in the population. At the same time, they are stable over time and largely stable across domains. We summarize heterogeneity in these three dimensions using a discrete classification approach with four types. Each group makes up 20-30% of the sample. One group comes close to the behavior of expected utility maximizers. Two types are characterized by high likelihood insensitivity; one of them is ambiguity averse and the other ambiguity seeking. Members of the final group have large error parameters; robust conclusions about their ambiguity attitudes are difficult. Observed characteristics vary between groups in plausible ways. Ambiguity types predict risky asset holdings in the expected fashion, even after controlling for many covariates. Beliefs and Portfolio Choice in a Representative Population
Abstract | Working Paper | Policy Outreach Video
The amount of risk that households take when investing their savings has long-term consequences for their financial well-being. However, a substantial share of observed heterogeneity in financial risk-taking remains unexplained by factors like risk aversion and wealth levels. This study explores whether subjective beliefs about stock market returns can close this knowledge gap. I make use of a unique data set that comprises incentivized, repeated elicitations of stock market beliefs and high-quality administrative asset data for a probability-based population sample. Households with more optimistic stock market expectations hold more risk in their portfolio, where the effect size is about half of the effect size of risk aversion. Furthermore, changes in expectations over time are related to changes in portfolio risk, which demonstrates that cross-sectional correlations are not driven by a time-invariant third variable. The results suggest that stock market expectations are an important component of portfolio choice. More generally, the study shows that subjective beliefs can be reliably measured in surveys and are related to actual high-stakes decisions. 